There are two possibilities to write an article about software. The first and most common of them is to describe a problem then to give a solution. This is a good way to introduce a new Method or a new Measurement System or a new Tool. Most of the articles I have read are written in such manner.
This article is written in a form rare to find today. I have described the problem. Now I'll explain why this problem is more complex as you mean. This is a good way to introduce Software Dragons.
I think you already have got at least two ideas about third outcome of a software project.8 Suppose I'll write the first form article. To introduce the solution I'll expand the above black box model to make a model of the solution of a problem. I'll describe ways a project member or a project team gets the information. I'll describe some factors that influence the decision. I'll describe how the decision can be applied to the software product and to the software process. To make the model complete I'll say that other factors that may influence the decision are small or unimportant. The most common and simplest way is of course don't speak about them at all.
Such kind of solution is not correct. You can apply it only in the universe of the model. An attempt to use it in the real world for a real project can lead to disaster.9
What is wrong? Wrong is the presupposition that the factors you cannot describe, measure or observe and the factors you don't know about may be not considered. They cannot. Even invisible factors can be neither small nor unimportant.
This fact is negative. It cannot be used for any constructive purpose. To avoid this problem we need to introduce some positive virtual objects having the same effect in the real world.
The most important task for us is to get results at least not worse as we want. Firstly we need to separate negative and positive effects. The virtual object having the positive influence on the process of a decision is well known and has the name ``good luck''. I won't describe it below. We're interested about evil things. We'll describe the nature of ``bad luck''. Let's consider what may be wrong with a decision.